Wisconsin’s Dairy Farm Crisis Is a Warning for the Future of American Agriculture. Fewer Farms. Bigger Operations. - Where Does the Next Generation Fit?
The latest numbers coming out of Wisconsin should concern every American who cares about the future of agriculture.
According to USDA data reported this morning, Wisconsin has now fallen below 5,000 licensed dairy operations.
As of August 1, Wisconsin had 4,991 dairy operations, down from 5,222 one year earlier and 5,470 just two years ago.
That means Wisconsin lost 231 dairy operations in a single year.
For a state known around the world as "America's Dairyland," this is more than another statistic.
It is a warning.
And Wisconsin is not an isolated case.
America Is Producing More With Fewer Farms
The United States has been experiencing agricultural consolidation for decades.
USDA's Economic Research Service reports that the number of licensed U.S. dairy herds fell from 66,825 in 2004 to 24,811 in 2024 — a 63% decline.
At the same time, the average size of a U.S. dairy farm increased from approximately 112 cows in 2000 to 283 cows in 2021.
The trend is clear:
Fewer farms are producing an increasing share of America's agricultural output.
That does not mean technology, efficiency, genetics or modernization are the problem.
In fact, those tools are part of the solution.
Wisconsin demonstrates that productivity can increase dramatically. In 2025, Wisconsin dairy cows averaged approximately 25,599 pounds of milk per cow, compared with 17,306 pounds around the year 2000.
The problem is not that American agriculture is becoming more productive.
The problem is that access to that productivity is becoming increasingly concentrated.
The Question We Should Be Asking
The question should not simply be:
"How many farms will America have in 2030?"
The better question is:
"Who will own and operate America's farms in 2030?"
If current trends continue, we could see a country where fewer and fewer people control an increasingly large share of agricultural production.
That creates serious questions about:
Farm ownership
Land access
Succession
Rural economic development
Food-system resilience
Competition
Agricultural workforce development
Beginning farmer access to capital
Veteran transition into agriculture
Technology access
Farm modernization
And the ability of young people to enter agriculture without inheriting a farm
The USDA has already documented the structural shift toward fewer, larger dairy operations.
The solution cannot simply be telling small and mid-sized farmers to "get bigger."
Not every farmer has the capital, land base, labor force or market access required to become a thousand-cow operation.
And not every successful farm needs to.
VYFA Believes the Answer Is Building Pathways — Not Just Bigger Farms
Veterans & Young Farmers Alliance exists because we believe America needs another conversation about the future of agriculture.
We need to stop treating the loss of farms as an inevitable statistic.
We need to start treating it as a workforce, ownership and rural economic development problem that can be addressed.
VYFA's mission is to help veterans and young farmers develop the knowledge, management skills, documentation, business planning and pathways necessary to become successful agricultural producers and farm owners.
That means preparing people before they approach a lender, purchase land or take over an operation.
What VYFA Can Bring to the Table
1. Farm Readiness and Modernization
Farmers should not have to choose between remaining small and becoming obsolete.
VYFA can help producers evaluate:
Farm infrastructure
Equipment needs
Production systems
Technology
Precision agriculture
Record keeping
Risk management
Farm safety
Business structure
Marketing
Financial management
Labor management
Regulatory requirements
Agricultural law
Emergency preparedness
Modernization should not be reserved for the largest operations.
A 40-acre operation and a 4,000-acre operation both need sound management systems.
The scale may be different.
The need for good management is not.
2. Beginning Farmer Development
USDA's Farm Service Agency already recognizes that beginning farmers face unique barriers to obtaining land and capital.
FSA's Beginning Farmer programs provide access to Farm Ownership and Operating Loans designed to help beginning farmers establish and expand agricultural operations.
VYFA's role is to help people become prepared for those opportunities.
That includes developing:
Business plans
Farm budgets
Production plans
Management documentation
Record-keeping systems
Risk-management plans
Equipment plans
Marketing strategies
Farm-readiness portfolios
Training records
Prior agricultural experience documentation
A beginning farmer should not walk into a lender's office with nothing more than a dream.
They should walk in with a plan.
3. Veteran Farmers Are an Untapped Agricultural Workforce
America has thousands of veterans leaving military service with leadership, logistics, mechanical, technical, operational and management experience.
Those skills have tremendous value in agriculture.
But military experience does not automatically translate into a farm loan application.
There has to be a bridge.
VYFA is building that bridge.
Our goal is to help veterans translate existing leadership and management experience into documented agricultural competencies while providing additional agricultural education, mentorship and hands-on preparation.
4. Mentorship and Knowledge Transfer
One of the greatest losses occurring alongside farm consolidation is the loss of institutional knowledge.
When a farm closes, we don't just lose land and livestock.
We can lose decades of:
Equipment knowledge
Livestock knowledge
Crop knowledge
Local market knowledge
Management experience
Weather knowledge
Land stewardship practices
Community relationships
Problem-solving skills
VYFA believes experienced farmers should have a pathway to transfer that knowledge to the next generation.
Our mentorship model is designed to connect experienced farmers, ranchers and agricultural professionals with veterans and young farmers who are preparing to enter or expand within agriculture.
**We don't need to replace the wisdom of the previous generation.
We need to transfer it.**
5. Succession Should Begin Before the Farm Is in Crisis
Wisconsin's numbers also raise another uncomfortable question:
What happens to farms when the current owner is ready to retire and there is nobody prepared to take over?
Succession planning cannot begin after the owner decides to sell.
It needs to begin years earlier.
VYFA can help facilitate a transition framework that brings together:
Current farmer → successor → mentor → business plan → training → documentation → financing pathway → ownership transition
The objective is simple:
Keep productive agricultural assets in agricultural production whenever possible.
We Don't Believe Every Farm Has to Become a Mega-Farm
This distinction matters.
VYFA is not anti-technology.
We are not anti-scale.
We are not anti-large farms.
Large agricultural operations have an important role in American food production.
But America also needs:
Family farms
Beginning farmers
Veteran farmers
Specialty producers
Diversified farms
Direct-market farms
Livestock operations
Small and mid-sized commercial farms
Cooperative models
Farm enterprises that combine production with value-added businesses
Agriculture needs multiple pathways to success.
If the only viable pathway requires millions of dollars in capital before a new farmer can begin, we should not be surprised when fewer young people enter agriculture.
The 20,000-Farm Question
The projection that America could fall below 20,000 dairy farms by 2030 should not be dismissed.
But neither should it be accepted as destiny.
The numbers are already moving in that direction.
USDA counted 24,811 licensed dairy herds in 2024, while more recent industry reporting places the 2025 total at approximately 23,609.
If the United States crosses below 20,000 dairy farms, the number itself will matter.
But what matters even more is what happens to the land, livestock, infrastructure and communities represented by the farms that disappear.
Do those assets remain available to the next generation?
Or do they simply become consolidated into fewer operations?
That is where policy, education, mentorship, financing and farm transition planning matter.
VYFA's Challenge to Agriculture
We cannot spend another decade documenting the disappearance of American farms and then act surprised when the next generation says there is no place for them.
We need to build the pipeline now.
Experienced farmers need successors.
Beginning farmers need training.
Veterans need pathways into agriculture.
Young farmers need access to land and capital.
Existing farms need modernization plans.
Lenders need applicants who understand the business they are asking to finance.
Rural communities need agricultural businesses that can survive and grow.
And America needs an agricultural system resilient enough to include both large-scale production and smaller independent producers.
This Is Where VYFA Can Help
Veterans & Young Farmers Alliance is prepared to work with farmers, agricultural organizations, veterans, young producers, lenders, educators, conservation partners and rural communities to develop practical pathways for the next generation.
Our work focuses on:
Farm Readiness
Agricultural Education
Farm Management
Modernization
Mentorship
Business Planning
Risk Management
Record Keeping
Succession Planning
Veteran Agricultural Transition
Beginning Farmer Development
FSA-aligned preparation and documentation
The goal is not simply to create more people who know how to farm.
The goal is to create farmers who are prepared to own, manage, modernize and sustain viable agricultural businesses.
Wisconsin Is Not the End of the Story
Wisconsin's 4,991 dairy farms are a warning.
But they can also be a call to action.
America still has land.
America still has agricultural knowledge.
America still has people who want to farm.
America has veterans with leadership and technical skills.
America has young people who want meaningful careers connected to the land.
What is missing for many of them is a pathway.
VYFA believes that pathway can be built.
We should not wait until the number of American farms reaches 20,000 to ask who will replace the farmers who are leaving.
We should be preparing their successors now.
The future of American agriculture should not be determined solely by consolidation.
It should be determined by whether we are willing to invest in the people who will carry American agriculture forward.
Veterans & Young Farmers Alliance
Serving Those Who Serve the Land
Building Farms. Building Families. Building Futures.
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