The Future of Farming Cannot Be Built Without Farmers

There is a number in the dairy industry right now that should get everyone's attention:

$13 billion.

That's the amount of announced investment in new and expanded dairy processing capacity across 19 states.

At the same time, the U.S. dairy industry is preparing for approximately 15 billion more pounds of milk production by 2030.

On the surface, this sounds like a success story.

Demand is growing.

Processing capacity is expanding.

Technology is improving.

Productivity is increasing.

The United States is positioning itself for continued growth in domestic and international dairy markets.

But there is another number in the story.

The number of farms is going down.

And that is where the conversation becomes much bigger than dairy.

More Production. Fewer Producers.

The USDA projections discussed in the Dairy Herd report show U.S. milk production increasing from 225.9 billion pounds in 2024 to 243.7 billion pounds in 2030.

But that growth isn't expected to come primarily from dramatically increasing the number of cows.

It is expected to come largely through productivity.

More milk per cow.

Better genetics.

Better nutrition.

Better management.

Better technology.

Better data.

Better infrastructure.

That is modern agriculture.

And modern agriculture requires highly capable farm managers.

Which brings us to a problem that doesn't receive nearly enough attention.

What Happens to the People Who Already Know How to Farm?

There are people across America who have spent years working in agriculture.

They have driven equipment.

They have cared for livestock.

They have planted and harvested crops.

They have repaired machinery.

They have managed employees.

They have handled customers.

They have worked around farm finances.

They have learned from parents, grandparents, employers and years of hands-on experience.

But many of those people don't have a formal document that says:

This person has agricultural management experience.

That can become a serious barrier when they eventually try to move from working in agriculture to operating their own agricultural business.

Experience is valuable.

But undocumented experience can be difficult for institutions to recognize.

That's the Experience Paradox

We often tell beginning farmers:

“You need experience.”

But we don't always give them a practical way to document the experience they're already gaining.

Someone can spend ten years working on farms and still struggle to translate that experience into a professional agricultural portfolio.

That's a problem.

And it isn't solved by simply telling people to go get more experience.

We need a better bridge between experience and opportunity.

VYFA Believes That Bridge Can Be Built

At the Veterans & Young Farmers Alliance, we believe agricultural education should be about more than completing a class.

It should help people build something they can carry forward.

A record of what they learned.

A record of what they already know.

Evidence of practical experience.

Business planning.

Risk management.

Financial understanding.

Production knowledge.

Leadership skills.

And a professional agricultural portfolio that can help tell the story of their readiness.

That does not guarantee a loan.

It does not guarantee land.

And it does not replace the requirements of USDA, FSA or private lenders.

But it can help turn invisible experience into documented experience.

And that matters.

We Don't Need to Choose Between Big Farms and Small Farms

This conversation should not become another argument about whether large farms or small farms are the answer.

The dairy industry itself recognizes that there is no single ideal farm size or business structure.

Different operations work in different regions.

Different producers have different resources.

Different markets require different approaches.

And a resilient agricultural system can include farms of different sizes and operating models.

That's the future we should be working toward.

Not one model.

A diverse agricultural ecosystem.

The Human Infrastructure of Agriculture

America is investing in processing plants.

We're investing in equipment.

We're investing in technology.

We're investing in genetics.

We're investing in data.

We're investing in infrastructure.

We also need to invest in the human infrastructure of agriculture.

That means investing in the people who will operate those farms.

The people who will manage livestock.

The people who will maintain equipment.

The people who will run farm businesses.

The people who will take over family farms.

The people who want to start farms.

The people who have spent years working in agriculture but have never had a clear path to document their experience.

And yes — the veterans and young farmers who are trying to find their place in an increasingly complicated agricultural economy.

The Question Isn't Whether America Can Produce More

The dairy industry is betting billions that American agriculture can produce more.

The data suggests that it can.

The bigger question is:

Can America create enough qualified, prepared and supported agricultural producers to sustain that growth?

Because a farm isn't just a piece of land.

A dairy isn't just a herd.

A business plan isn't just paperwork.

Agriculture is people.

And if we want American agriculture to remain strong for the next generation, we have to make sure those people have a pathway from:

Experience → Documentation → Competency → Readiness → Opportunity.

That's the work VYFA is building.

Because the future of farming isn't going to happen automatically.

We have to build the people who are ready to build it.

Source: Dairy Herd, “How U.S. Dairy Plans to Grow 15 Billion Pounds by 2030 With Half the Farms,” August 14, 2026.